Trump's Ukraine Negotiation A Delicate Dance of Flattery and Threats

Trump's Ukraine Negotiation A Delicate Dance of Flattery and Threats

As President Vladimir Putin's military continues to make steady gains in Ukraine, nearly three years after the invasion, it remains unclear whether he will engage in meaningful negotiations with US President Donald Trump. While both leaders have signaled discussions on Ukraine, Russian and Western experts warn that Putin is unlikely to budge without significant concessions from Kyiv.

The Context

During his campaign, Trump boasted about his ability to end the war in 24 hours, later revised to six months. Since then, he has indicated that he and Putin are discussing Ukraine without involving Kyiv, claiming that his administration is already having very serious talks.

Putin's Objectives

So, what drives Putin? According to Russian experts, including Fyodor Lukyanov, who hosted a forum with Putin in November, the Kremlin leader faces little domestic pressure to end the war and has not seen significant economic consequences despite Western sanctions.

Trump's Options

What can Trump do? While he has threatened Russia with more tariffs, sanctions, and oil price cuts, there is no economic wonder weapon that can end the war. The Kremlin is likely brushing off these threats, as the West already has heavily sanctioned Russia.

Practical Advice for Trump

1. Apply Pressure Prop up the US oil industry with subsidies and lift the 10% trade tariffs imposed on China in exchange for Beijing limiting economic ties with Moscow.
2. European Support Encourage Europe to underscore its commitment to Kyiv – and curry favor with him – by buying U.S. military equipment to give to Ukraine.
3. Be Cautious Recognize that Putin's strategy is to deliver himself whatever he wants in negotiations, making concessions a slippery slope.

Conclusion

As Trump navigates the complex landscape of Ukraine diplomacy, it is essential to be cautious and aware of Putin's tactics. While flattery and threats may have their place, they will not guarantee success. To make progress, Trump must be willing to engage in meaningful dialogue with Kyiv and Europe, while also recognizing the limitations of his options.

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Edward Lance Arellano Lorilla

CEO / Co-Founder

Enjoy the little things in life. For one day, you may look back and realize they were the big things. Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.