Trump Says He Wants to Negotiate About Ukraine But Will Putin Really Budge?

Trump Says He Wants to Negotiate About Ukraine But Will Putin Really Budge?

As President Vladimir Putin's troops continue their steady progress on the battlefield in Ukraine, nearly three years after his invasion, the new U.S. president is signaling discussions with Russia about ending the war. However, it remains unclear whether Putin will be willing to make concessions.

A Complicated Dance Talks on Ukraine without Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concerns that Putin wants to deal directly with Trump, cutting out Kyiv. This runs counter to the Biden administration's position that echoes Zelenskyy's call for Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.

Echoes of Helsinki A Complex Relationship

Trump and Putin last met in Helsinki in 2018 when there was a sense of mutual respect between them. However, as former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, the summit host, noted, they are not very similar. Trump wants a quick resolution to the war, while Putin seeks a slower one that strengthens his military position and weakens both Kyiv and the West's political will.

Effective Strategies for Negotiating with Russia

To successfully negotiate with Russia, Western leaders must employ several key strategies

1. Engage, but Don't Negotiate Putin sees negotiations only as a vehicle to deliver him whatever he wants. Western leaders must understand Kremlin tactics and not fall into this trap.
2. Apply Economic Leverage Trump could pressure Russia by propping up the U.S. oil industry with subsidies and lifting the 10% trade tariffs imposed on China in exchange for Beijing limiting economic ties with Moscow, which could leave it truly isolated.
3. Strengthen Europe's Commitment to Kyiv Europe could underscore its commitment to Kyiv – and curry favor with Trump – by buying U.S. military equipment to give to Ukraine.
4. Use Finesse, Not Force Putin is likely to welcome any meeting with Trump, since it promotes Russia as a global force and plays well domestically. However, he will offer little in return. Western leaders must use finesse to navigate these negotiations.

What Trump Can and Can't Do

While Trump may want to negotiate with Putin about Ukraine, there are limits to what he can achieve

1. Threaten Russia with More Tariffs, Sanctions, and Oil Price Cuts The Kremlin is brushing off these threats, likely because the West already has heavily sanctioned Russia.
2. Guarantee Ukraine Would Never Join NATO This is a non-starter for Putin, who sees Ukraine's membership in NATO as a threat to Russian security.
3. Lift All Western Sanctions These sanctions are deeply entrenched and unlikely to be lifted without significant concessions from Russia.
4. Force the International Criminal Court to Rescind its War Crimes Arrest Warrant for Putin This is highly unlikely, given the ICC's independence and commitment to upholding international law.

The Bottom Line

While Trump may want to negotiate with Putin about Ukraine, it remains unclear whether Putin will be willing to make concessions. Western leaders must use finesse, not force, to navigate these negotiations and achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine.

Edward Lance Arellano Lorilla

CEO / Co-Founder

Enjoy the little things in life. For one day, you may look back and realize they were the big things. Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.