The Odds of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth in 2032 Why Scientists are Not Worried

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The Odds of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth in 2032 Why Scientists are Not Worried

The discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 has sparked initial concerns about its potential impact on our planet. However, scientists have conducted thorough calculations and observations, revealing that the chances of it hitting Earth in 2032 are extremely low.

According to recent estimates, there is only a 2% probability that the asteroid will collide with our planet. This means that there is an overwhelming 98% chance that it will safely pass by without causing any damage.

So, why should we not worry about this potentially hazardous asteroid? The answer lies in the science behind tracking and predicting the paths of near-Earth objects like 2024 YR4.

What are Asteroids?

Asteroids are space rocks that orbit the sun, ranging in size from a few feet to hundreds of miles across. These remnants from the solar system's formation over 4.6 billion years ago can be found floating between Mars and Jupiter, known as the main asteroid belt.

How Do Scientists Track Potentially Hazardous Asteroids?

The discovery of 2024 YR4 was made by a telescope in Chile in December, followed by observations from NASA's Webb Space Telescope. The initial estimate put the odds of impact at over 1%, but this has since been revised to around 2%. However, NASA emphasizes that even this relatively low probability is still an extremely low chance.

Until scientists have a better understanding of the asteroid's path around the sun, they caution that the odds will continue to fluctuate and may even fall to zero. This is why NASA and other space agencies rely on observations from telescopes like Webb to track the asteroid's size, shape, and trajectory.

Why Should We Not Worry About Asteroid 2024 YR4?

According to Larry Denneau, senior software engineer with the University of Hawaii's asteroid impact alert system, there is no need for concern. You don't have to be worried about anything, he said. It's a curiosity. Don't panic. Let the process play out, and we'll have a for-sure answer.

NASA's Expertise in Asteroid Tracking

In 2021, NASA gave the all-clear on another potentially worrisome asteroid, Apophis, after new telescope observations ruled out any chance of it hitting Earth in 2068. This demonstrates the agency's expertise in tracking and predicting the paths of near-Earth objects.

What If It Does Hit?

While it is impossible to predict the exact consequences of an impact, experts say that if the asteroid is on the smaller end, the effects would be local, similar to the Tunguska event that flattened thousands of square miles of forest in remote Siberia in 1908. However, if it's closer to 330 feet (100 meters), the consequences would be significantly worse.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while asteroid 2024 YR4 may have initially raised concerns about a potential impact, scientists are confident that the chances of it hitting Earth in 2032 are extremely low. As new observations and data become available, we can expect the odds to fluctuate and eventually drop to zero. Until then, there is no need for alarm or concern.

Recommendations

For game designers, this blog post serves as a reminder of the importance of space exploration and asteroid tracking. By incorporating concepts like asteroid impacts into your designs, you can create engaging and realistic games that simulate real-world scenarios.

Edward Lance Arellano Lorilla

CEO / Co-Founder

Enjoy the little things in life. For one day, you may look back and realize they were the big things. Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.