If you want to change trade flows with a tariff, you have to do the homework first, not just hope that it will work and then see if anyone pushes back, Obstfeld said. Trump has repeatedly threatened and followed through with steep tariffs on steel imports, which are levied per ton of product.

The Power of Trump's Tariff Tactics May Reshape Global Trade — Analysts

WASHINGTON, D.C. — US President Donald Trump's use of tariffs as a blunt weapon to extract concessions on everything from commerce to immigration and drug trafficking could redraw global trading norms, analysts say.

Since his inauguration on January 20, Trump has unveiled and paused blanket tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods over migration and illegal fentanyl, and hiked duties on Chinese imports in the same breath, triggering retaliation.

And on Monday he imposed sweeping steel and aluminum levies, drawing comparisons to his first term when he imposed duties across both sectors before allowing exemptions.

Trump sees tariffs as a way to raise revenue, remedy trade imbalances, and pressure countries to act on US concerns.

But the degree of uncertainty about trade policy has basically exploded, said Maurice Obstfeld, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Analysts can try to predict where tariffs might be imposed based on economic variables, he told AFP, but basing trade policy on non-economic objectives could throw things into a tailspin.

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