"Why Myanmar's State of Emergency Extension Sets a Disruptive Path Ahead

Why Myanmar's State of Emergency Extension Sets a Disruptive Path AheadAs we enter 2025, the world watches with concern as Myanmar's tumultuous journey continues to unfold. The military junta, now four years into its power grab, has decided to extend the state of emergency by six months – a move that will delay long-promised polls until at least the second half of the year. In this blog post, we'll examine the reasons behind this decision and what it means for Myanmar's future.The Roots of Conflict: A Chaotic DescentMyanmar's descent into chaos began on February 1, 2021, when the military seized power after making unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020 elections. The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, had won a landslide victory, but the military was not willing to relinquish control. This bold move sparked a civil war that has claimed thousands of lives and displaced hundreds of thousands more.The Junta's Struggle to Quell ResistanceAs we reflect on the past year, it's clear that the military is struggling to contain armed resistance to its rule. Ethnic minority armed groups in the north and west have been making gains against the junta, suffering a series of damaging battlefield losses. This reality check has forced the ruling council headed by army chief Min Aung Hlaing to re-evaluate its strategy.The Extension: A Calculated MoveThe junta's decision to extend the state of emergency for six months is not surprising, given the precarious situation on the ground. The move was unanimously approved by the National Defence and Security Council, including Min Aung Hlaing as commander-in-chief and acting president. The statement cited section 425 of the 2008 constitution as the basis for the extension.Elections on Hold: Consequences of the ExtensionUnder a state of emergency, elections cannot be held. Therefore, the long-promised polls set for 2025 will not take place until at least the second half of the year. This delay is likely to fuel further discontent among pro-democracy forces and international observers.A Path to Peace: The Way ForwardFor the junta, the path to peace and stability is a challenging one. Min Aung Hlaing has told the ruling council that "peace and stability is still needed" before the state of emergency can be lifted and polls held. This sentiment is echoed by many observers who believe that lasting peace cannot be achieved without meaningful dialogue between the military, ethnic minority groups, and civil society.Conclusion: A Disruptive Path AheadMyanmar's decision to extend the state of emergency for six months sets a disputatious path ahead. The delay in elections will likely fuel further conflict and discontent among pro-democracy forces and international observers. As we look ahead to 2025, it's clear that Myanmar faces a complex and challenging road ahead.In our next blog post, we'll explore what this means for the equine community in Myanmar and how they can navigate these treacherous times.Keywords: Myanmar, state of emergency, junta, elections, civil war, ethnic minority armed groups

Edward Lance Arellano Lorilla

CEO / Co-Founder

Enjoy the little things in life. For one day, you may look back and realize they were the big things. Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.